Snowpack hovering near normal — for now

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Precipitation in the state — and in the region — has been the tale of two Januarys.

The first week of January brought meaningful storms and normal or above normal precipitation. Then there is the rest of the month — where meaningful storms have been few and far between, Natural Resources Conservation Service officials said in a press release Friday.

But NRCS officials said, there is still plenty of winter — and chances for meaningful precipitation in the state — left. Less-than-desirable January precipitation curbed some of the previous optimism for a drought-busting snowpack and subsequent efficient runoff, the snowpack is still near or above normal, they said in the Feb. 1 Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report.

“While temperature inversions and cloud cover dominated January for most of Idaho’s lower elevation valleys, the mountains largely received the opposite: slightly warmer than normal temperatures and many ‘bluebird’ days,” said Daniel Tappa, hydrologist-data collection officer for NRCS Snow Survey in Idaho.

Warmer temperatures, combined with little snowfall during the month, resulted in an unusually dense snowpack for this time of year, Tappa said. The season's low angle of the sun is limiting early runoff and additional snowfall will also help limit earlier-than-normal snowmelt.

While the state saw less precipitation in the second half of January, NRCS officials said the Panhandle fared slightly better than most of Idaho. The region saw precipitation of 85 to 105 percent of normal during January.

Despite little precipitation during that time period, NRCS officials said the year is still trending toward normal in the region with total precipitation hovering at 105% to 115% of normal. Snowpack also is near normal, ranging from 100 to 105% of normal for Feb. 1.

The snowpack was cold enough and had low enough density to withstand several rain-on-snow events. However, such events increase snow density and warm the snowpack, which reduces the overall amount of energy required to produce snowmelt runoff, NRCS officials said.

"Although it is too early to predict snowmelt timing for this region, the Panhandle basins still have near normal snow density which should help prevent early snowmelt," officials said in the report.

Across most elevations in Panhandle basins, the snowpack is slightly more than 50% of normal peak conditions — something that typically occurs between April 5 and 14.

"Having 50% of normal peak conditions is expected for this time of year, but it suggests there is still plenty of time for conditions to evolve," officials said.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts suggest an equal chance for normal precipitation

Lakes in the Panhandle are at 65 to 95% of normal storage, with Lake Coeur d’Alene at 64%, Lake Pend Oreille at 85%, and Priest Lake at 94%. Streamflow forecasts for April through July range from 110% to 115% of normal at the 50% exceedance level for the Panhandle basins.

"The beginnings of disappointment … but cautiously optimistic," NRCS officials said in the report. "That is the way we can describe the February 1 snow and water supply condition across the state. As we inch closer to spring, we are still hopeful that the precipitation of late December and early January comes back - at least for a few rounds more to give us some additional drought relief."

Active weather patterns which brought abundant snowfall to the state abruptly ended in mid-January, leaving in its place a "high and dry" weather pattern. While the northern half of the state fared better, southern Idaho saw record to near-record low precipitation in the second half of the month.

Thanks to strong precipitation patterns in the fall and early winter, NRCS officials said drought severity in the state has decreased. Less than 1% of Idaho is facing extreme drought conditions compared to more than 40% three months ago.

Those early weather patterns are helping offset the January dry-spell, officials said but current weather forecast suggest more of the same to start February — high pressure and little in the way of precipitation.

"Conditions are still favorable for at least a normal streamflow runoff season," NRCS officials said in the report. "However, if the January dry-spell is a premonition of forthcoming weather, normal streamflow runoff will be unlikely."